U.S. to List Potential Radical Climate Changes...06/10/00
By Patrick Connole
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A coalition of U.S. government agencies will unveil
Monday the first national assessment on the potential consequences of
climate change over the next 100 years, revealing a wide range of impacts
if the Earth continues to warm significantly, according to a draft made
available to Reuters on Friday.
Cold winters in the Northeast could become a thing of the past,
alleviating some health stresses, the nation's food supply should be safe,
and forests may proliferate.
But at the same time, there will be drought concerns in every region of
the United States, maple syrup will not flow easily in New England, and
ecosystems may disappear entirely.
Sources with environmental organizations who helped draft the assessment
said the project offers a slew of scenarios for how the United States will
be affected by a projected temperature rise of 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit by
the year 2100.
Dr. Janine Bloomfield, an expert with the Environmental Defense
organization in New York City, said the report is not final and will be
open for public comment from Monday.
``There are specifics on the impact on ecosystems, as well as the rate and
magnitude of climate change,'' Bloomfield said.
Regional Differences, Overall Uncertainty
The assessment breaks down how regions and specific sectors could be hurt
or helped if the Earth warms at the same rate it has in recent years due
to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It was written
by a panel of scientists from several government agencies, academics,
private groups, and other interested people ranging from farmers to
fishermen.
According to the draft, the country must be prepared for the changes
ahead, even if the exact impacts remain uncertain at this point.
``It is very likely that some aspects and impacts of climate change will
be totally unanticipated as complex systems respond to ongoing climate
change in unforeseeable ways,'' it says.
Even if steps were taken in the near-term to reduce human greenhouse gas
emissions, the report says, the level of gases already in the atmosphere
will leave the world susceptible to climate change for the next century.
``Even if the world takes mitigation measures, we must still adapt to a
changing climate,'' the draft says.
``Similarly, even if we take adaptation measures, future emissions will
have to curbed to stabilize climate. Neither type of response can
completely supplant the other.''
An international attempt to tackle climate change, the Kyoto Protocol, has
not been finished but it aims to reduce sharply the amount of fossil-fuel
emissions from major industrial nations to 1990 levels by the years
2010-2012.
Hotter Weather, Storms
The following are some of the key findings listed in the assessment draft,
which sources expect to remain in place when the Global Change Research
Program officially unveils the report next week. The report was written
+ Increased warming. Assuming continued growth in world greenhouse gas
emissions, the climate models used in the assessment project that
temperatures in the United States will rise 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit on
average in the next 100 years.
+ Differing regional impacts. Climate change will vary widely across the
United States. Heavy and extreme precipitation events are likely to become
more frequent, yet some regions will get drier.
+ Vulnerable ecosystems. A few ecosystems such as alpine meadows in the
Rocky Mountains and some barrier islands are likely to disappear entirely,
while others such as forests in the Southeast are likely to experience
major species shift or breakup. The goods and services lost through the
disappearance or fragmentation of certain ecosystems are likely
to be costly or impossible to replace.
+ Widespread water concerns. Drought is an important concern in every
region. Floods and water quality are concerns in many regions. Snowpack
changes are especially important in the West, Pacific Northwest and
Alaska.
+ Secure food supply. U.S. crop productivity is very likely to increase
over the next few decades, but the gains will not be uniform across the
nation. Falling prices and competitive pressures are very likely to stress
some farmers.
+ Forest productivity is likely to increase in some areas as trees
respond to higher carbon dioxide levels. Climate change will also cause
long-term shifts in forest species, such as sugar maples moving north out
of the country.
Alarm Bells Should Be Going Off
Science and environmental groups lauded the draft as a ''balanced
assessment'' of the potential impacts of climate variability and change on
the United States but warned that unless the nation saw the report as a
``wake up call,'' nothing good would come from its release.
In a joint statement from Environmental Defense, National Environmental
Trust, Natural Resources Defense Council, Union of Concerned Scientists
and the World Wildlife Fund, the groups said it was time to take climate
change seriously.
``Places that Americans love like Florida's coral reefs and the alpine
meadows of the Rocky Mountains could suffer greatly from global warming,
according to the report,'' said Jennifer Morgan, director of the World
Wildlife Fund's Climate Change.
``America's alarm bells should go off today,'' she said. |
